Odds of single vote deciding election: 1 in 60M
WASHINGTON (AP) — Voting for president and having your ballot be the deciding one cast - statistically, that is like trying to hit the lottery. The odds for the average person are 60 million to 1 against it, a study shows.
In some states, the odds of being the vote that tips the election to your candidate are much better. In others they are astronomically worse.
The study by three prominent statisticians used millions of computer runs of polling data to examine the likelihood that a single vote will carry a state and that that particular state will tip the balance in the Electoral College. The statisticians were trying to answer the question: “What is the probability your vote will make a difference?”
The answer is very low. You are far more likely to be hit twice by lightning.
